27 Dec 11 - Gold - Weekly and Daily Charts signalling a possible top and impending correction?

The year of 2011 has about to come to an end and very soon we will be welcoming 2012. It will be a challenging 2012 ahead and I was just reading some news on some commentators saying that it might a be good time to buy on Gold since price has moved down quite from its all time high of 1920, but it is true? As for now, from the charts are telling me in the long term, I would be hesitant to go in long for now, but if certain levels hold, then that will be my consideration to go long.

Monthly Chart

As seen in the attached chart, Gold has been trending up for the past few years and having hit a peak at 1920, there were some interesting signals seen at this high. Following the high, there was a possible resistance seen here as price candle for Sep 2011 showed a Bearish Engulfing candlestck pattern. Following this, the price action has been trending lower. It might soon test the rising trendline and with a successful break of this trendline, I will definitely be staying away from a long position.

In addition, what is interesting to note is that the RSI divergence shouting out loud. There was a very clear divergence seen on Gold which is telling us that there is an internal weakening for now and a possible downward move seems really possible.

Weekly Chart

Zooming down to the weekly chart, it is clearly evident that we are currently in a short downward move for Gold as it has already violated a short term rising trendline and it seems to be moving down to test the longer term rising trendline.

In addition, the RSI has already moved below the 50 level which is indicating that Gold is currently trending down.

Daily Chart

This is where the picture becomes clearer and from here, there is a key level for Gold which will dictate the move for Gold in 2012.

As seen in the attached chart, following the high of 1920, Gold has been trending down and how do we tell that? Well, following the high, Gold has made a low and a new lower high. The downtrend will be further confirmed when a new lower low is made which brings the support level at 1532.35 to 1564.16 the key levels to watch out for. If Gold prices hold at this region, this is where I may consider a long position.

Having looking through these charts, I will ignore the rumours and not even bother about a long since there are currently no setups for a long anyway. Well, it all remains to be seen.

22 Dec 11 - USDCHF - M15 - Bearish Shark Type 2 Reversal

Another nice trade done on my demo trading while I am still focusing on honing my trade execution and trade management skills.

It is interesting to note that while I have posted a long example on USDCHF which is in a long term uptrend, why is it now that I am looking to short this pair? This is where it gets confusing to me even previously when I first started trading. In essence, when I am looking at the distal timeframe, I am usually looking for supportive signals to support my trade and the market conditions changes every time and thus we will have to be adaptable when it comes to trading and that we will have to see what the market is telling us. The market moves in cycles and very frequently, it will rotate between a uptrend or a downtrend. Therefore, in short, it basically depends on what is your focus at that point in time.

To simplify the idea discussed above, I think this is best explained by the chart attached.

I would say that this is one of those rare cases where both the Bearish Shark Pattern which preceded the Bullish 5-0 Pattern were both valid structural signals. This example exemplifies the notion that the market moves in cycles and that every move will be in a certain degree be related to the previous swings and this is what makes Harmonic Trading interesting.

What is even more interesting here is that this example emphasizes on the importance of a proper trade management too. For example, if we were to first trigger on the Type 1 Reversal of the Bearish Shark Pattern and wait for a home run, we will be met with a disappointment when the Bullish 5-0 Pattern was validated and the trade would probably ended up with a breakeven. Similarly, if we were to trigger on the Bullish 5-0 Pattern, we will meet another disappointment if we were to just wait for the price to simply move to the Target Profit when the price action moved back up to set us up for a Type 2 Reversal.

And this is where the discussion of the Type 2 Reversal for the Bearish Shark Pattern comes in as this was a trade which I took.

Distal (H1)

As seen in the attached chart, the price action was having a resistance at the 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement Level at the region of 0.93946.

In addition, following the impulsive test of the RSI in the overbought region, the RSI has rolled out from the extreme region which was signaling an internal weakening of the pair. There was also a divergence in this case of the Type 2 Reversal but I would not give this divergence a very strong rating though and just to acknowledge its presence.

Primary (M15)

This is where I guess I have more or less ironed out my issues with the Type 2 Reversal setup in the sense that I will wait for the right setups to come and accept nothing lesser than that.

In this case, as seen in the attached chart, I was very confident with the Type 2 Reversal in this case as I have observed the following:

1. The 1.13 0B level which was the Stop Loss Limit for the pattern held as price was rejected at this level.
2. There was a divergence seen on the RSI. The difference was very small but it doesn't matter so long as there is a divergence.
3. Price respected the high of the Terminal Price Bar.

These were basically my confirmation factors for the Type 2 Reversal for the Primary Timeframe.

Proximate (M5)

Basically the cue for me to take the trade on the Proximate timeframe was when price broke below the rising trendline following an impulsive RSI test.

In this case, I was looking to sell at a minimum of 0.93693 and my price triggered for the trade was 0.93772 which I thought was a really good price as I have executed the trade above the PRZ.

Trade Management

There was nothing much here as the trade did not move much and the trade was closed when the price action broke above the Accelerated Trendline.

A small profit of 10.9 pips was made here. At this point, as usual, I will remind myself that it does not matter whether the price was crash from here or not as I was capitalizing on the high probability segment of the setup and all I need to know is that I have executed and managed my trades on a consistent basis which is key to success in my live trading.

Reflection

The "Penalty Box" was not a bad idea after all as it has made me focus on honing my skills in trading the Harmonic Approach and I am glad that I have taken this step. Having said that, I will still be spending some time in the "Penalty Box" till I see some consistency.

It takes a lot of persistence and determination to be successful in trading and I have since committed myself to achieve this success in my life.

22 Dec 11 - USDCHF - M15 - Bullish 5-0 Pattern Type 1 Reversal

In this setup, I was unable to execute the trade on my demo account in view that there was only a small time window which this trade was to be triggered. In addition, the other reason that I was not able to trigger the trade was that I was unable to trigger the trade at my preferred price of under 0.93134. I was keeping to my trade execution rule where I will just trigger just beyond the PRZ for every setups and if such entries are missed, I would rather stay away from them.

Nonetheless, this was a nice example of how a trade will work out on a harmonic setup and how the price action will respect the PRZ.

Breaking the pattern down:

Distal (H1)

As seen in the attached chart, this pair has been trending up and the price was following respecting the upper and lower constraints of the rising channel despite some overspill to the upside and downside.

What was interesting in the distal timeframe that the uptrend will ensue was probably the swing failure point seen on the RSI as seen in the attached chart.

Primary (M15)

For the Primary timeframe, following the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, it took while for the RSI to consolidate before exiting from the oversold region and this set up a Complex RSI structure. In addition, following the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, the following price candle showed some price rejection which was an early validation that the PRZ was holding and after this price candle, the price action started to reverse. The happened simultaneously as the RSI rolled out from the oversold region.

Proximate (M5)

Breaking the Primary pattern down into the smaller timeframe, after the price action violated the falling trendline, there was only a small window to trigger the trade as price action soon rallied up following the complete test of the PRZ. The only reason why this was not so ideal to trigger a long trade was that the price traded slightly above the ideal price for a long trade and thus the reason why I chose to stay away. I would prefer not to chase price as the Harmonic Patterns would define an ideal price parameter for a trade.

In this case, this is a case of a missed opportunity where I will not bother despite a nice setup as the entry rule was not fulfilled.

Then again, for learning purposes, supposedly the trade was triggered, the trade management in this case would be to square off the trade when the Accelerated Trendline was violated. Regardless of whether the price will continue to rally, it doesn't matter after this as the idea was to keep to the strict trade management rules. If the trade was to be triggered at around 0.93190, taking into account the spread (which was above the ideal price of 0.93134), it would have been a 40 plus pips trade. This would have been a nice trade for an intraday trade.

21 Dec 11 - GBP/USD - M15 -Bearish Bat Type 2 Reversal

Following the brief Type 1 Reversal from the Bearish Bat Pattern, the price action went back to retest the pattern's PRZ to offer another opportunity for a trade.

Since I was previously having some difficulties, I have decided to experiment with a few different entry techniques which will be discussed in the Proximate timeframe section.

Breaking the whole pattern setup down:

Distal (H1)

At the point of the Type 2 Reversal setup, the Distal timeframe looks more promising this time round as the RSI has rolled out from the extreme overbought region.

With the 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement Level acting as a resistance and the RSI coming out of the overbought region, this was my confirmation for a trade.

Primary (M15)

When it comes to the Primary timeframe, things just got better. Firstly, it was very obvious there was a divergence. In addition, the structural validity of the pattern was still intact as the price reversed at the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement Level which meant that the pattern was valid. In addition, the RSI divergence was also indicating that there was an internal weakening in this pair.

Proximate (M5)

Having the confirmation from the Distal and Primary timeframes, this is where I decided to experiment with the various entry techniques.

1. Candlestick Patterns in the absence of RSI extreme test conditions

In the attached chart, my cue to go short in this technique was in view of a Bearish Engulfing Pattern while having in mind that the RSI was trending down. In other words, there was not much confirmation in this case except for acknowledging the candlestick pattern as a confirmation. This proved risky as following this entry, price continued to rally and the trade took quite a bit of heat and risked having the Stop Loss triggered. Therefore, this is definitely a no go for future trade executions.

2. Trade execution with a RSI divergence

For this method, I would consider this an early entry where I will have maximum potential while having lesser confirmation. After triggering the trade, price was able to hold around the area and fall. This technique can be considered as the main confirmation here was the RSI divergence which gave me the confidence.

3. Trade execution with RSI divergence and Trendline violation.

In the last entry technique, it offers a lower risk when it comes to the execution. However, with more confirmation, we will have to pay the price of having a later entry which we mean that we can only trigger only at a lower price. (Despite a lower price, I was still triggering above the PRZ). This would probably be my preferred technique as it gives me more confidence when it comes to taking a Type 2 Reversal Trade.

Trade Management


In terms of the trade management, the trade was closed when the price action violated the Accelerated Trendline. Regardless of what will happen later, be it that the price will crash after I square off the trade, it does not matter to me already as it was all done in the line with the Trade Management rules.

All in all, the trade gathered 26.8 pips in profit for my preferred entry technique while another 36.8 pips for the more leading entry (Technique 2).

21 Dec 11 - GBP/USD - M15 -Bearish Bat Type 1 Reversal

Following a few losses, I have decided to put myself in the "Penalty Box" to reassess my trading and do some reflections on my trading.

I have been identifying patterns correctly but it seems that my trade execution has not been very ideal which resulted in my losses. As such, I have decided to take a break and go back to polishing on my trade execution and trade management skills.

Following some reflection and that I have "banned" myself from doing live trading in the short term, there was a nice pattern completion on GBP/USD and which I though would be a nice opportunity to work on my trade execution and management skills.

Breaking it down to the various timeframes:

Distal (H1)

The pair has been consolidating around the region of the 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement Level at around 1.57496 for the past 3 weeks and the PRZ of the Bearish Bat Pattern happened to coincide with this region.

There was nothing much to gather as a confirmation. One thing to note though was that the RSI was in the overbought region at the point when the trade was taken.

Primary (M15)

In the case of the Primary timeframe, what was interesting was that the pattern completed before we could see any RSI secondary confirmation. In this case, I will usually expect that there will be an overspill to the upside before I will see a possible reversal.

As seen in the attached chart, the PRZ of the pattern falls in the range of 1.57046 to 1.57275 and I am looking to sell this pair above 1.57275 which will be ideal for a short trade. This level is my minimum price level to execute a short trade.

As for the consideration of the pattern's symmetry, this is where the time consideration comes into play. In this case,  there reversal occurred after the 0.382 Fibonacci Time Projection and thus the setup was considered to be valid.

Zooming in, following the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, it took another 3 price candles before a stabilization could be observed and this is where I got a slight hint of a possible reversal at play.

It should be noted that in this case, I was looking for an early entry and thus the only confirmation I got on this timeframe was the presence of price stabilization.

Proximate (M5)

The final confirmation came from this timeframe where the trendline violation and the RSI Complex Structure gave 2 confirmation signals to go ahead with a short.

The short was executed at 1.57325 which was a few pips above my minimum price level of 1.57275 following the confirmation factors.

Trade Management

Despite a very brief reversal, the Trade Management aspect for this trade was simple.

I closed the a portion of the trade when I saw a violation of the steep trendline as it has signaled that the price action was unable to hold its move down.

The second batch was later closed when the protective stop was triggered for the trade. Therefore, this clearly shows the importance of respecting the trendline violation and I should have closed the whole trade instead of a partial close. The trade closed with a small profit of 4.8 pips for the first batch and 1.0 pip for the second batch.

14 Dec 11 - GBP/USD - H1 - Bullish Gartley Pattern Type 1 Reversal

With all the technicals in place, it still took a while for the trade to work itself out and since the primary pattern was identified on the H1 chart, it will take a while for the price action to assert itself too.

Breaking the analysis into the various timeframes:

Distal (H4) - Type 1 Reversal

Although the predominant trend looks as though it was a downtrend, zooming out further revealed that there a support at the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement Level which was supportive of the trade.

Basically, the Distal timeframe provided me with a possible support which was supportive of the long trade.

Primary (H1) - Type 1 Reversal

Following the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, it required an additional 2 more price bars before the price action stabilized and hinted a possible reversal at hand.

In addition, following the price stabilization, the RSI confirmed the pattern's completion when it rolled out from the oversold region which signaled a possible trade at hand.

Proximate (M15) - Type 1 Reversal

As seen in the attached chart, following the completion of the pattern, there was an impulsive RSI structure which rolled out from the oversold region which served as my confirmation factor.

Following which, there was a downtrend trendline violation and that was my cue to go long on the pair. Admittedly, I would say that I could have entered at a better price but a slight delay on my side cost me a few pips more but nonetheless, the trade was still triggered slightly beyond the PRZ which was still within the limits of the Trade Execution Rules.

Trade Management

The 1st batch was closed when price action violated the Accelerated Trendline, netting a profit of 20.6 pips.

Meanwhile, the 2nd batch has been set to breakeven while aiming for the Target Profit.

The 2nd Batch was closed when the price action violated the 0.382 Trailer and the RSI actually broke the uptrend trendline. In this case, the profit was 6.6 pips.

Proximate (M15) - Type 2 Reversal

A very big lesson learnt for the Type 2 Reversal which I am still not very good at, and a trade which cost me the profits made for the week. A whopping loss of 88.3 pips which I was preparing for the big Bullish Gartley Pattern to play out the Type 2 Reversal.

In this case, the only reason which I figured out in this loss was the lack of confirmation signals on the Proximate timeframe which proved to be an important lesson. In essence, it would be have been a better entry if I had waited for the RSI to give me a confirmation signal.

13 Dec 11 - AUD/USD - M15 - Bearish 5-0 Pattern Type 1 & 2 Reversals

A very nice trade done for the week. This trade was done in the direction of the predominant trend which added to the trade's potential.

Distal (H1) - Type 1 Reversal

As seen in the chart attached, AUD/USD ha previously consolidated before breaking out of the box range and formed a new downtrend. Besides a possible resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement Level, the Distal timeframe has nothing much to offer as confirmation.

Primary (M15) - Type 1 Reversal

The PRZ for the Bearish 5-0 pattern happened to be near the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement Level seen on the Distal timeframe which gave more weight to the pattern's PRZ in this case.

Following the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, the price stabilized and reversed. In addition, there was  an impulsive RSI test which confirmed the pattern's completion.

Proximate (M5) - Type 1 Reversal

For the Type 1 Reversal, there was barely a small window for a short to be executed and there was only a brief reversal experienced in this case and I managed to grab a tip from this trade and squared it with a profit of 2.2 pips.

Breaking down the pattern's completion in the Proximate timeframe, basically there were 2 confirmation which signaled a trade execution. Firstly there was an impulsive RSI test of the overbought area and after the RSI rolled out of the extreme area, a violation of trendline was observed in the price action.

Primary (M15) - Type 2 Reversal

This is where it gets interesting. Type 2 Reversals will usually give a very good reversal move, but it is tricky as there will be some factors which we will have to consider when it comes to taking a Type 2 Reversal trade. As I am still not very experienced with it and sort of getting better at it, this is a trade where the experience tells you that the price will take a fall after retesting the PRZ.

There were a few secondary confirmation factors seen in the Type 2 Reversal which signaled the trade execution:

1. There was a Shooting Star candlestick formation seen at the retest of the PRZ and price was unable to hold above the high of the Terminal Price Bar. This was good as it indicated that the PRZ was intact and the long shadow seen on the Shooting Star was indicative of price rejection.
2. RSI was clearly indicating weakness in the pair as it has for a downtrend as seen in the chart above.

Proximate (M5) - Type 2 Reversal

Similarly on the Proximate timeframe, it was a nice entry as there was a violation of a very steep uptrend trendline. As we all know steep price moves will usually be unsustainable for long and thus this was a cue to go short.

In addition, the RSI has since rolled out of the extreme overbought region and formed a new downtrend.

Following the proper trade execution and trade management rules, the trade turned out pretty well. In fact the trade would have worked out even better if there was a trailing stop but I decided against it as it was late already and thus decided to let the Target Profit hit.

All in all, the trade gathered 24.8 pips for the 1st Batch and 63.2 pips for the 2nd batch.

12 Dec 11 - EUR/USD - H1 - Invalidated Bullish Gartley @ 0.886 (Counter trend)

I was looking to go long on EUR/USD at the start of the week when this pair showed a potential Bullish Gartley @ 0.866 pattern completing. I was initially considering a conservative trade on this pair but it was later invalidated when the pattern's completion failed to show any confirmation for a trade execution.

This example which I have decided to post puts emphasis on the importance on waiting for secondary confirmation factors to validate a trade opportunity and I was glad that I was able to stay away from an awry trade as I would have taken such trades previously.

Distal (H4)

As seen in the attached chart, the pattern shows a potential pattern completion in the middle of a falling channel and this is itself would have been a potential trade failure as there might be a continuation down to the lower constraint of the falling channel before we could see a potential long opportunity.

In essence, there was no confirmation signals seen on the Distal timeframe.

Primary (H1)

In the attached chart, following the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, the price action held on the following bar before showing a continuation of the predominant trend.

Despite an impulsive RSI test of the oversold area, which was an early sign of some possible reversal, there was a lack of additional confirmation factor such as a trendline violation which signaled a warning to take on a long trade.

Proximate (M15)

Breaking down the primary pattern into the Proximate timeframe, it would have been tempting for me to take on this trade as I would have taken a long following a bullish engulfing pattern in the presence of a complex RSI structure in the oversold region. However with the introduction of a trendline violation as a secondary confirmation factor, this have since kept me away from such trades which are of low probability.

When it comes to the Proximate timeframe, it would have been a nice long opportunity since there was a slight stabilization in conjunction with a complex RSI structure, but the lack of a trendline violation, which would have been a delayed entry for more confirmation proved that the predominant trend was too strong and that we will have to reconsider going long.

After violating the Stop Loss Limit of the pattern, there was a trendline violation observed but at this point in time, the setup was already invalid as the price action has since exceeded the PRZ which in this case I will not bother already as I will always look to only trigger a trade in the PRZ or slightly beyond it, and not when the price action has violated the Stop Loss Limit of the pattern.

Despite not having a trade at the start of the week, I was glad that I have stayed away as it has shown to me that I was able to filter out such low probability trades.

08 Dec 11 - GBP/USD - M15 - Bearish Bat - Type 2 Reversal

Another great lesson learnt from this trade as I took a small loss of 24.7 pips from this trade. The lesson learnt in this case was the fact that I entered a trade with a lack of confirmation on the proximate timeframe.

Distal (H1)

In the case of the Distal timeframe, there was a recent RSI overbought test and the RSI has since rolled out from the extreme zone which was indicative that the pair was weakening.

Primary (M15)

The analysis on the Primary timeframe is an interesting one. The pattern has completed before the minimum 0.382 Fibonacci Time Projection. In this case, no action was taken as the 0.382 Fibonacci Time Projection serves as the minimum time zone for a valid pattern setup. The RSI has also tested the overbought region and rolled following the pattern's completion which was indicative of a trade at hand. Since the Type 1 Reversal was avoided, I was planning to take the trade on a Type 2 Reversal setup.

Proximate (M5)

This is where the mistake was made, there was no prior secondary factors which supported the trade. At a minimum, I should at least be looking at any extreme RSI structures before taking a trade but I did not which contributed to the trade's failure.

I had taken the trade on a trendline violation but that in itself was not sufficient as a signal for short.

Therefore, in this trade, it shows the importance of the RSI as a secondary confirmation factor which will contribute to the success of a trade.

06 Dec 11 - USD/CHF - M15 - Bearish Crab Pattern - Type 1 Reversal

This was the second trade for the day which allowed my to cover my earlier losses and made a small profit for the day.

A beautiful trade I would say and a trade which I was very pleased with the trade execution and management aspect of it.

Distal (H1)

As seen in the attached chart, the pair is currently in an uptrend but there was a resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement Level. In addition, the RSI has previously tested the overbought region and has since rolled out of the zone and we can also see that it has been trending down which indicated the pair's weakness.

Primary (M15) - Type 1 Reversal

After the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, it needed an additional 2 more candles before price stabilized and this is something which is expected of the Crab pattern as it will usually have some overspill.

In addition, the RSI only completed the complex structure after the Terminal Price Bar establishment which was also an early signal to indicate an overspill to the upside.

Proximate (M5) - Type 1 Reversal

With the RSI always being an early signal, my cue to sell was when price broke the uptrend trendline while staying above the PRZ for a nice entry.

The confirmation factor in this case was the trendline break and the RSI complex structure which rolled out of the overbought area and started to trend down.

For the trade management aspect of the trade, the trade was split into 2 trades, with the 1st Batch closed when price went beyond the 0.382 AD swing with a profit of 31.6 pips.

The 2nd batch was closed when the price action broke above the accelerated trendline with a profit of 42.6 pips.

Type 2 Reversal


There was indeed a Type 2 seen in the chart, but the only reason why I chose to avoid it was that the pattern was a little stretched already and that it has exceeded the 1.618 Fib Time Projection which could have lowered the probability of the trade. Regardless of the move, I will still stay away from this trade as I firmly believe in taking only the setups which will give me a higher chance of success. This of course is still in progress and along the way, this is something which I will expect myself to get better at.

06 Dec 11 - NZD/USD - M15 - Bullish Shark Pattern - Type 1 and 2 Reversals

This is one of the trade examples which emphasizes the importance of trade management rules and respecting them when it comes to trading.

This could have been a breakeven trade but since I was on a mobile platform, the hesitation when I was out cost me a loss in this trade. Then again, a lesson learnt.

Distal (H1)

There was nothing that set us up in this timeframe for a buy and all we can see was that price was consolidating in a horizontal fashion. Basically there were no confirmation factors seen here.

Primary (M15) - Type 1 Reversal

As seen in the attached chart, after the establishment of the Terminal Price Bar, there was no immediate signals to go long although there was a slight "price stabilization". In this case, I would have considered this a proper price stabilization as I would usually to see some price stabilization in the presence of an extreme RSI test. Following the "price stabilization", the price action rolled down just as the RSI entered the oversold area. Following this test of the oversold area, price started to stabilize and that was our cue for a Type 1 Reversal.

The validation on this timeframe was that the RSI rolled out from the oversold region and this validated the pattern.

Proximate (M5) - Type 1 Reversal

The Type 1 Reversal in this case offered a small window for the trade to be execution. The confirmation factors in this timeframe was firstly a completion of an impulsive RSI structure and the downtrend trendline violation.

As observed, this was a very short lived trade, but with proper trade management in place, the trade could only have broke even. This was the mistake committed on my part when I hesitated on squaring the trade which resulted in a loss of 25.6 pips.

Therefore, lesson learnt in this case is that we should respect trade management rules and stick to them no matter what.

What was interesting after the short Type 1 Reversal was a divergence which set up the Type 2 Reversal. In this case, there was some discretion needed again as the price action has went a little lower than the 1.13 XA Stop Loss Limit region for the pattern.

Primary (M15) - Type 2 Reversal

When it comes to discretion, this is where the deliberation will come in. In my case, I will usually go for it when there is a divergence with price within the PRZ as divergence seen on the RSI is one of its best signals. So, this is one of those borderline cases. This would have been a move which I would have missed, but I was just documenting this as a lesson. As I typed this entry, I started to doubt this as a proper setup as price has moved beyond the PRZ and thus it would have been avoided not matter how good it looks or that price reversed sharply after. We do not bother about it.

Proximate (M5) - Type 2 Reversal

This is where the pattern might show some signs of a not so good trade at hand even if we were to take it as there was a steep trend break to signal entry and after the play out, you will also notice a very steep price move and followed by a trendline break.

On hindsight, it may seem that the price took a very nice move up after the first reactive move's retracement, but frankly, when it comes to real time trading, I would have been out after the reversal trendline break.

Lastly, this will outline the importance of one rule, when in doubt stay out. I was initially tempted to take this trade but when the pattern was off the 1.13 XA Stop Loss Limit, I had my doubts and since I was out, I decided to just let it go and not be bothered by it.