27 Apr 11 - Bullish Bat Pattern on GBPUSD - M15

Another nice trade which happened this week, but the difference is that I am on the boat this time round. : P

This is a great example which shows the importance of patience where we will have to wait for a nice pattern to form which will allow us to capitalise on the market's move. In essence, quality trades will usually be better taking multiples trade (i.e. quantity) since the more times we are in the market, the more risk will involved. Therefore, in the recent months, I have switched over to looking for quality trades which have greater potential and higher probability of success. With this, it makes trading less stress and fun.

Having reflected on my recent trading style, the following will be the analysis for GBPUSD and the reasons why this trade was taken. Similar to the example of the EURUSD example posted yesterday, this trade also highlights the importance of multiple time frame reconciliation.

W1 Chart

With reference made to the attached chart, the pair made a new high close last week above the 1.63995 region. With some basic knowledge of technical analysis, one will look to buy on dip this week since the new high close of the previous week will most likely indicate that the bullish momentum of this pair will continue this week.

In addition, the pair is moving along a rising trendline with higher highs and higher lows formed along the way since the middle of 2010.

Since price has broke above its box range, the likely resistance will probably be around the 1.68760 to 1.70412 region.

D1 Chart

On the D1 Chart, it seems that the pair was having a short term retracement which might indicate a short term breather for this pair. In technical analysis, this pair might be having a bullish flag forming and traders may look to buy on a bounce of the rising trendline though.

Currently, the road map for this week will still be up since the pair is forming higher highs and higher lows.

H4 Chart

This is where the analysis of this pair gets interesting.

After closing above the  resistance at 1.64263, price went through a short term rally which then retraced  to test this level. In technical analysis, this is also known as the "Change of Polarity" where previous resistance becomes support. With the, the trading range became a box range for this period of time as the market takes a break and then probably make its move again.

With this, the Bullish Bat Pattern was seen forming at the bottom of the box range and this is when the setup comes for me to go long on this pair.

The above chart shows the "Change of Polarity" where the previous resistance was acting as a very nice support for this pair.

The following 2 charts attached will show where the pattern was formed in the box range and since the pattern was drawn on the M15 Chart, things will look cluttered but nonetheless, they show where the pattern was formed in relation to the box range and how the trading opportunity presented itself.

M15 Chart (Entry)

With reference to the chart attached below, the Terminal Price Bar was also the Setup Bar to go long in this case. The Setup Bar was a Bullish Engulfing Pattern which prompted me to go long on the open of the next candle after the PRZ was completely tested. I will usually prefer the PRZ to be tested completely before considering taking up a trade though. This will inevitably mean missing out on some trades but then again, this is trading and I just got to stick to my rules. And if I miss out on an opportunity, I will just have to wait for another opportunity to come. This is sometimes frustrating and thus to keep our emotions in check is one of the most important thing we should do when we are trading.

In addition to the confluence of the 3 Fibonacci Ratios which validated the Bullish Bat Pattern, the presence of a support derived from the H4 Chart at 1.64263 ("Change of Polarity") gave added confidence for me to take this trade.

Trade Details

Date & Time: 27 Apr 11, GMT 08:15
Entry Price: 1.64583
S/L: 1.64230 (35.3 pips)
T/P: 1.68500 (391.7 pips)

The reason for the ambitious target was on the basis that the trade was done in the direction of the predominant trend. The target might or might not be reached, but the rationale of this approach is to reap as much profit as possible for the 3rd batch of this trade once I have covered the first 2 batches of the trade, while having a trailing stop such as the 0.382 trailer in place to cover the trade when the price retraces more than 0.382 of the reversal. Another check in place would be to cover the trade on a reversal trendline break.

Trade Management

I was initially looking to cover the 1st batch of the trade at the 0.618 AD swing at 1.64882 region but on a news release, price shot up and my 1st batch was closed at 1.65013 on 27 Apr 11, GMT 08:30, netting a profit of 43.0 pips while the 2nd batch was closed at 1.65301 on 27 Apr 11, GMT 08:35, netting a profit of 71.8 pips. (The blue zones in the chart attached were the areas where I covered my 1st and 2nd batches of the trade).

The move was very fast for the first 2 batches and once they were covered, the 3rd batch was left to maximise my profits while having a protective stop at 1.64900, protecting 31.7 pips and allowing the 0.382 trailer to trail the stop. This is a very nice trade done and there will be more to come.

Seeing that there is an upside potential for this pair and when price broke the reversal trendline, I decided to divide the last batch in 2 separate batches while protecting my profits.

The 3rd batch was closed when price broke below the rising reversal trendline. The 3rd batch was closed on 27 Apr 11, GMT 11:18 at 1.65615, netting a profit of 103.2 pips.

On added, a nice reversal should usually posses a steep reversal trend line and this trade exemplifies the reversal characteristic. In addition, since the reversal is relatively steep, we should expect it to be broken quite fast since the market will not be able to sustain such a steep move. With this in mind, this was one of the reasons why I divided the last batch in 2 batches to squeeze more profits out of the market. It is important to know what you are doing and react accordingly when you have a valid reason behind your trade management.

As for the last batch left running, the trade will be closed when price closes below the 0.382 trailer.

An update for the last batch running for this pair. Apparently, this pair was taken out when price closed below the 0.382 trailer before resuming its rally. Then again, with a trading plan and rule in place, there is no regret when the trailing stop was triggered. I will just have to respect the market. Having said so, this is not a bad trade after all since I have managed to farm quite a fair amount of pips from this trade.

The last batch was closed on 27 Apr 11, GMT 15:00 at 1.65194, netting a profit of 61.1 pips when price closed below the 0.382 trailer.

Note: I have mentioned a "close" below the 0.382 trailer and there is a meaning to it. If price tested the 0.382 trailer and did not close under it, it would not mean much to me since the shadow will only mean a test but not a breach. From my experience, a close above or below a resistance or a support will mean more to mean than a shadow above or below a resistance or support as a close will indicate a breach of support or resistance to mean whereas a shadow is just a test and a rejection above a resistance or a support. In fact, when a shadow tests a support or resistance and failed to close above a resistance or below a support, it is usually a nice signal to go short when price failed to close above a resistance or long when price failed to close below a support. This technique is however a rough guide and it will have greater importance if this is supported by other signals, such as a Harmonic Pattern. The example on EURUSD and the setup on the GBPUSD showed this methodology combined with Harmonic Trading.

26 Apr 11 - Bullish Butterfly Pattern on EURUSD - M30

In this example posted, it exemplifies the importance of multi time frame checks which will point to the road map of a pair's move. With such a check in place, it will usually allow us to weight out the risks involved as to what we should do if we are taking a counter trend trade or a trade in the direction of the predominant trend.

With the road map identified, I will usually be more ambitious in trailing my target up (in a long position) or down (in a short position) when I have secured a portion of the profit when I am doing a trade in the direction of the predominant trend while remaining conservative and not change my target when I am in a counter trend trade.

In the case of EURUSD today, although I missed the entry opportunity, I thought that this would be nice to post as a learning example as the trade opportunity when it presented itself was in the direction of the predominant trend and the trade, if taken was working out beautifully.

Getting down to the technical analysis of EURUSD for this week.

W1 Chart

From the look of the close of the previous week, the pair made a new high close and thus pointing that the bullish move of this pair is set to continue this week while targeting the high of 2009 at the 1.51430 region as its likely resistance in the long term. This might be a likely target taking into the account of the weak USD in the recent months.

In addition, with reference made to the attached chart, another sign of the pair bullish strength is that the pair has been making higher highs and higher lows which in basic technical analysis is pointing to a bullish momentum.

D1 Chart

As we zoom in to the D1 Chart, there is a very nice rising channel seen on this pair with clear higher highs and higher lows marked. It should be noted however that the price is moving up near the upper band of the channel and a retracement might be expected soon. But then again, for a retracement to set in, we will have to see price action at the upper band to confirm it and thus the outlook is still bullish for this pair.

H4 Chart

When we zoom in to the H4 chart, this is where it gets interesting as we look into the intraday moves. On the D1 chart, it is seen that the price is still on an upward but when we zoom into the H4 chart, it is clearly evident that the price was consolidating (refer attached chart). Price was seen bouncing between the 1.45307 and 1.46476 region and this is exactly where the trading opportunity came in this morning.

The above chart shows the consolidation on the H4 chart which is not seen on the D1 chart while the next chart shows the trading opportunity at the lower band of the box range.

Since the pattern is identified on the M30 chart, things will look a little cluttered when drawn on the H4 chart, but this is to give an idea where the trading opportunity presented itself.

M30 Chart

Since the road map for this pair was identified to be moving up, the pattern setup came in the direction of the road map and thus this would have been a trade with a very great potential and a high probability of success.

Trade Management

A bit on the trade management aspect since this was a very nice trade.

In this case, the 1st batch would have been closed when the reversal moved up to the 0.382 AD retracement while the 2nd batch would have closed at the 0.618 AD retracement (indicated by the blue zones) while leaving the last portion of the trade to run till it is taken out by the 0.382 trailer of a trend line of the reversal.

As can be seen in this example, there are nice opportunities presented by Harmonic Trading and this is just another reason why I am a firm believer of Harmonic Trading as it has shown me tremendous results since I discovered this trading methodology taught by Scott Carney.

Following up on the 3rd batch where 2 methods can be employed in the trailing stop, the trend line breach has occurred.

However, if we are looking at the 0.382 trailer, the trade will still be in progress as price has yet to retrace to the 0.382 retracement level since the reversal.

With this, it covers the Harmonic Trade Management aspect. When it comes to trading, having a solid Trade Management will allow us to profit from out trading while minimizing our risk and in this case, it has shown its importance.

A follow-up on this pair's move. The 0.382 trailer is still working very nicely and in this case, the trade would still be running if I was onboard the trade. Refer to to the attached chart.

This would have been a very nice trade where the we have a low risk, high probability trade with a great potential. On a conservative estimate, the current floating profit for this trade would have been around 300 plus pips!

12 Apr 11 - Bearish Crab Pattern on EUR/USD - M15 Chart

I was looking to short this pair on a potential Bearish Bat Pattern setup initially. However, after the Terminal Price Bar (T-Bar) completion, there was not sign of a reversal (as indicated in the light blue circle) and thus the trade was aborted.

However, after the price action breached the PRZ of the Failed Bearish Bat Pattern, it was met with a intraday resistance at the 1.44726 to 1.44827 region and completed a Bearish Crab Pattern which prompted a short position on this pair.

The setup to go short on this pair on the completion of the Bearish Crab Pattern was the "Dark Cloud Cover" candlestick signal following the T-Bar.

Trade Details

Date: 12 Apr 11, GMT 10:30
Entry Price: 1.44567
S/L: 1.44900 (33.3 pips)
T/P: 1.43890 (67.7 pips), Intermediate T/P at 1.44161 (40.6 pips) region to cover half the position.

Trade Update

The S/L was triggered on this position, resulting in a loss of 33.3 pips.

21 Feb 11 - Bullish Bat Pattern on USD/CAD - H1

This is a nice pattern completion despite the fact that the PRZ took a few retest before finally reversing.

1st Batch profit in this case was triggered while the 2nd batch was closed when the 0.382 trailer was triggered.

The technicals involved in this trade actually increased the potential of this trade. A check with the D1 chart actually showed that the support around the 0.98147 to 0.98305 region was holding as there were no candle closes below this level. In fact when price broke the 0.98305 region and failed to closed below it and a second retest made a new low and then failed to close below this level increased the significance of this level.

On the intraday chart, the h1 chart, a nice Bullish Bat Pattern was seen completing and thus a buy was triggered to go long on this trade.

The trigger to go long in this case was when the bullish engulfing pattern was completed. For the case of this entry, the entry price was lower than the preceding candle close and it was entered on purpose to trigger the trade on a better price.

Trade Details

• Date: 21 Feb 11
• Time: GMT 16:09
• Entry Price: 0.98332
• S/L: 0.98100 (23.2 pips)
• T/P: 0.99000 (66.8 pips) 

Trade Update

The 1st batch was closed on 22 Feb 11, GMT 02:57 at 0.98543, netting a profit of 21.1 pips.

The 2nd batch was closed on 22 Feb 11, GMT 05:29 at 0.98472 when the protective stop was triggered when price retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement Level of the reversal price move (i.e. 0.382 trailer). The 2nd batch was closed with a profit of 14.0 pips.

Note: In fact, the close of the candle which formed the shooting star would have been a warning to square off the trade already as this is usually a classical reversal sign and in this case, the reversal following the close of this candlestick pattern brought the price back to the PRZ.

15 Feb 11 - Bullish Gartley Pattern on AUD/USD - H1/ M15 Entry

Another trade which resulted in a loss despite a valid signal and trade execution was within trading rules. It seems that this is a tough month where trading has become quite a testing period. Got to press on and persevere.

Trade Details

• Date: 15 Feb 11
• Time: GMT 15:50
• Entry Price: 0.99923
• S/L: 0.99600 (32.3 pips)
• T/P: 1.00500 (57.7 pips)

Trade Update

The trade was closed when the S/L was triggered on 15 Feb 11, GMT 19:23 at 0.99600, resulting in a loss of 32.3 pips for both batches.

Reflection


This is a very trying period as the trading performance is way below my expectations. Then again, when it comes to trading, losing is part of the game and we will have to look forward regardless of a loss or a win.

11 Feb 11 - Bullish Bat Pattern on NZD/USD - H4

In the case of this trade done, there was a harmonic meltdown on this trade done. Anyway, this was due to an ambitious attempt as the trade was done at the end of the week which was risky as there might be weekend gaps and in this case, the price gapped down and continued to move lower.

There was a warning initially as price was moving sideways and there was an opportunity to get out but I decided to hold on though.

Trade Details

• Date: 11 Feb 11
• Time: GMT 16:00
• Price: 0.76056
• S/L: 0.75350 (70.6 pips)

Trade Update

Trade was closed when the S/L was triggered on 15 Feb 11, GMT 09:52 at 0.75346, resulting in a loss of 71 pips on both batches.

10 Feb 11 - Bearish Butterfly Pattern on USD/SGD - H1

I would consider this a tough month where prices are choppy and patterns are invalidated after trade execution.

Then again, losing is part of the business in trading and thus strict risk management will allow us to suffer some draw downs while continuing to trade. This is definitely a very upsetting period for me but then again, I will have to look forward despite a few draw downs and in the case of this trade, it is another loss taken.

As a way of learning and a reference for the future, I have made it an effort to post all my trades be it losing ones or winning ones. It is with this mindset that learning will take place as I get critical with my trading technique and trade management.

In the case of this trade, the short position was triggered when the price stalled and made a reversal before resuming its uptrend.

In the case of this trade and of course on hindsight, the trade would have been a break even at worst when price reversed. In this case, price retraced beyond the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement Level after the reversal and this would have been a warning that the trade was not going to make it as most reversals will have strong moves and would rarely retrace beyond the 0.382 level. This would have been my warning signal but then again, this new trailing stop was further gained after I read up on some other material and I thought it would have been a nice tool to be added to my trading strategy.

Trade Details

• Date: 10 Feb 11
• Time: GMT 13:00
• Entry Price: 1.27800
• S/L: 1.28150 ( 35 pips)
• T/P: 1.27250 (55 pips)

Trade Update

The trade was closed when the S/L was triggered on 11 Feb 11, GMT 01:40 at 1.28150, resulting in a loss of 35 pips for both batches.

02 Feb 11 - Bullish Butterfly Pattern on USD/SGD - H4/ H1 Entry

When the Bullish Butterfly Pattern was completed on this currency pair, I proceeded to go long on it. However, due to a lack of liquidity and a retest of the PRZ, the trade was closed manually with a loss of 21.8 pips loss for both batches.

In the case of this trade, the price rejection below the PRZ was my signal to go long.

Trade Details:

• Date: 02 Feb 11
• Time: GMT 02:16
• Entry Price: 1.27405
• S/L: 1.26850 (55.5 pips)
• T/P: 1.29000 (159.5 pips)

Trade Update

The trade was closely manually when price failed to make a reversal and went back to test the PRZ. Trade was closed on 08 Feb 11, GMT 19:19 at 1.2787, resulting in a loss of 21.8 pips for both batches.

Reflection

In trading, losses are sometimes inevitable and in this case, the start of the month was plagues with 2 losses. Therefore, in trading, risk management is important as we have to make sure that we will have adequate equity to trade even when we have suffered a few draw downs which is quite common in trading.

Having said this, it is time to look forward for a good trade.

02 Feb 11 - Bearish Deep Crab Pattern on GBP/USD - H1

In the case of this trade done, it is one of the few examples which shows that all trading systems are not infallible.

Trade was executed when price tested the PRZ and reversed.

The confluence of the following Harmonic Ratios validated the Bearish Deep Crab Pattern:

1. 1.618 XA @ 1.61799
2. 2.24 BC @ 1.61989
3. 1.618 AB=CD @ 1.62075

The entry was considered to be a nice one, but then again, not all trades will give us a home run and in this case, it was a strike out though.

Trade Details

• Date: 02 Feb 11
• Time: GMT 17:00
• Entry Price: 1.61635
• S/L: 1.62440 (80.5 pips)
• T/P: 1st - 1.60500 (113.5 pips), 2nd - 1.59350 (228.5 pips)

Trade Update

The S/L for both batches were triggered on 03 Feb 11, GMT 07:45 at 1.62440, resulting in a loss of 80.5 pips.

Attached is the chart on how the trade turned out.

Trading Performance for Jan 2011

For the month of January, it was considered a great month for me as the total pip count was 568.93 pips.

Success rate was 77.7% which was considered to be consistent for me.

Reflection

Consistency is the key to successful trading and this is one aspect besides discipline which I am working on.

In this case, it is also evident that for a trader to have a good trading month, he does not need to trade too much to do well, but instead look for quality trades to do well.

20 Jan 11 - Bearish Bat Pattern on USD/CHF - H1 Chart/ M15 Entry

This following post will serve as a reminder to stay away from taking a trade prior to a news release even if there is a valid Harmonic Setup as news releases might sometimes cause price volatility. In addition, it was also written by one author of a trading book whom I couldn't remember, where he mentioned that trading should be done when the market is quiet and that is the best point in time where you can get it and ride the waves. I guess I flouted this rule and thus this trade failed.

I was initially thinking if it was wrong for me to enter this trade in the presence of some long range bars but this point was not valid as price stopped at the PRZ and then jumped on the release of the news.

I would consider that this was a very nice setup except for the fact that the news release upset the trade's turnout. Nonetheless, a great lesson learnt and with a proper risk management in place, I got to look forward to another trade after having to return part of my earlier profits back to Mr Market.

Now, back to the trade setup observed.

The PRZ was defined by the following Harmonic Ratios:

1. 0.886 XA @ 0.96195
2. 2.0 BC @ 0.96280
3. 1.618 AB=CD @ 0.96199

Having tested the PRZ and reversed as seen on the M15 chart, I proceeded to short this pair.

Trade Details

Date: 20 Jan 11
Time: GMT 14:45
Entry Price: 0.96186 (2 Batches)
S/L: 0.96500 (31.4 pips)
T/P: 1st - 0.95900 (28.6 pips), 2nd - 0.95450 (73.6 pips)

Trade Update

The S/L was triggered for both batches on 20 Jan 11, GMT 15:09 at 0.96508, resulting in a loss of 32.2 pips.

Reflections

The setup in this case was correct except for the fact of the News Release which was due approximately 15 mins after the trade execution. This move might be considered a bit risky and in this case, it was considered to my mistake to have taken this trade. This will serve as a reminder for future trades though.

In trading, we seek to minimise our risk exposure and in this case, I have flouted this cardinal rule by taking a trade just minutes before a news release. If the trade was done probably 2 hours before the news release, it might have been different. So in future, I will have to be more careful.

I am very glad that with the implementation of this blog, it has done wonders to my Forex trading, especially in the department of discipline. It has been my routine to updated ALL my trades and be very critical of my own trades be it that they are winning or losing trades and from there improve on my trading.

I have never believed that a small effort employed in this case has gotten me such a great step forward in my trading as I started picking up flaws and mistakes in my trading which allowed me correct them.

Trading is a serious business and we should keep proper records of our trading and even our thoughts before and after a trade as some ideas may just pop out and help us better our trading just as it has done so in my case.

20 Jan 11 - Bullish Gartley Pattern on GBP/USD - H1 Chart/ M15 Entry

Was initially thinking that this would be a quiet week where all the patterns were invalidated (since I have been actively charting the patterns on potential pairs since the start of this week) when a Bullish Gartley Pattern was validated on this pair.

Since the pattern was clearly evident on the H1 and M15 charts, I decided to use the M15 chart for a more leading entry.

The PRZ in this case was:

1. 0.786 XA @ 1.59095
2. 1.13 BC @ 1.59169
3. AB=CD @ 1.59078

After price tested the PRZ and reversed, it was my signal to go long for this pair.

Trade Details

Date: 20 Jan 11
Time: GMT 07:30
Entry Price: 1.59221
S/L: 1.58800 (42.1 pips)
T/P: 1st - 1.5960 (37.9 pips), 2nd - 1.60000 (77.9 pips)

Trade Update

The 1st batch was closed on 20 Jan 11, GMT 08:14 at 1.59604, netting a profit of 38.3 pips while the T/P was triggered for the 2nd batch on 20 Jan 11, GMT 09:44, netting a profit of 77.4 pips.

Attached is the chart on how the trade played out.

Learning Points

In this case, I was quite conservative on the T/P placement for this trade was partly due to the fact that the road map for this pair is currently still down as seen on the W1 chart where a potential Bullish Butterfly Pattern is setting up it CD leg.

In addition, a check with the D1 chart will show a resistance at the 1.60182 region which happens to be the 70.7%  Fibonacci Retracement Level. With the following in mind, that was how it guided me to decide on a small and yet reasonable T/P for this trade.

14 Jan 11 - Bullish Butterfly Pattern on USD/JPY - H1 Chart/ M15 Entry

A nice trade setup seen at the end of the week which allowed me to go long on this pair and since it was a very low risk trade, I decided to go ahead to enter the trade and manage it defensively.

A confluence of 3 Harmonic Ratios were seen which points to a Bullish Butterfly Pattern:

• 1.27 XA @ 82.434
• 2.0 BC @ 82.460
• AB=CD @ 82.470

Note: Since the 3 ratios were very close together, it gave me more confidence that this is a strong support.

Once price tested the PRZ and reversed (as confirmed by a Morning Star Formation), I proceeded to long this pair on the validation of the patten.

Note: In this case, this is a counter trend trade as we can see in the H1 chart attached where the price is moving down along a falling channel. Therefore, in this case, it is also wise to be more conservative in this trade since the D1 chart is indicating that a potential Bullish Butterfly Pattern is forming its CD leg now. Once the PRZ on the D1 chart is tested, I will be more willing to go long in the long haul. (Refer attached D1 chart)

Trade Details

Date: 14 Jan 11
Time: GMT 09:00
Entry Price: 82.540
S/L: 82.250 (29.0 pips) -> A very low risk trade.
T/P: 83.050 (51.0 pips)

Trade Update

Since I was looking to trade this pair on a very conservative approach, once the floating profit was approximately 20 plus pips, the trade was set to breakeven.

The 1st batch was closed on 14 Jan 11, GMT 09:44 at 82.822, netting a profit of 28.2 pips. The basis for this T/P is the 0.382 retracement level of the AD swing.

Final Update

The 2nd batch for this trade was closed on 14 Jan 11, GMT 13:31 when the protective stop was triggered at 82.799, profiting 25.9 pips.

Attached is the chart to which shows the trade outcome. In this case, this trade demonstrated that most Harmonic Patterns will allow some tradable opportunities and it does not always guarantee a home run. Therefore, it is important to protect our trades as we move along as no one can predict what the market will do next. Thus, discipline in the absence of greed and fear is important to consistently profit from the Forex market and this is certainly achievable so long as we stick to our trading plan. There is no doubt that there will be times where we will take lesser profits or even take a loss despite strict trade management, but the key here is to look forward and keep honing our trading skills while building up our experience.

It has been a learning journey so far for me and I believe it will always be this way and I am certainly glad to come to know of Forex trading as it has allowed me to know myself better and has since built a life long passion in me to do better in Forex.

03 Jan 11 - Bearish Deep Crab Pattern on AUD/USD - D1 Chart/ H1 Entry

I was initially expecting a low liquidity day since it was just the beginning of 2011, but as I was doing the analysis for the various pairs, AUD/USD got my attention when I was looking at its D1 chart. After drawing the Fibonacci Ratios, it was clearly evident that price was testing the PRZ (See attached chart).

Then again, if we do not wish to trade an early entry, once the candle for 03 Jan 11 closes below the PRZ, it would have been a trigger to go short on the next day's open (and in this case it did!).

The following would have validated the Bearish Deep Crab Pattern:

1. A confluence of 3 Harmonic Ratios - 1.618 XA @ 1.01927, 3.14 BC @ 1.01849 and 1.27 AB=CD @ 1.02424.
2. A Doji which indicated that the upward move might have come to an end and a Bearish Engulfing Pattern on the close of 03 Jan 11 candle (Refer to 2nd attached chart).

Since there was quite a tight range for the PRZ, I decided to zoom in to the H1 Chart to look for an entry.

If we look carefully at the H1 Chart, there was an earlier entry for this trade but I missed out on that entry as I overlooked it. Then again, the later entry which I have gotten was not a bad deal after all as it was backed with basic technical analysis. In this case, when price made a new lower low, it gave me added confidence so go short on this pair as I was pretty sure that trend for the short term was a down trend (See chart attached above).

Trade Details

• Date: 03 Jan 11
• Time: GMT 14:00
• Entry Price: 1.01799
• S/L: 1.02600 (80.1 pips)
• T/P: 1st - 0.94200 (759.9 pips), 2nd - 0.8910 (1278.4 pips)

* Note: In this case, the risk/reward is extremely low since I am aiming to swing this trade. Trade management will come into play and protective stop will be adjusted accordingly as the trade continues while I target the 2 profit objectives. This is considered a swing trade.

Trade Update

As this trade continues, I prefer to lock in some profits and thus I decided to divide this trade into 3 batches.

The 1st Batch was closed on 04 Jan 11, GMT 05:14 at 1.00948, netting a profit of 85.1 pips.

07 Jan 11 - Update

The trade is still open and it has been set to 1.01700 to protect the trade and cover some of the swap incurred while I attempt to swing the trade.

Meanwhile, the potential for this trade remains strong as no warning signals are seen on the D1 chart for now and thus the trade is still ongoing. 

Refer to the 2 attached charts, one the D1 Chart and the other the H1 Chart. Do note however, since this is a swing trade, I have switched the trade management to be on the D1 Chart so that I can manage this trade properly in the absence of the intraday noise. As seen in the attached charts, if the trade was managed on the H1 Chart, there would have been many times which I would have been tempted to close my trade.

10 Jan 11 - Update

The trade is still running and I am still maintaining my bearish views on this pair. Once this candle closes tomorrow morning, the protective stop will come into play as I start to protect more of my profits. Currently, the 2nd and 3rd batches are having a floating profit of 200 plus pips each.

11 Jan 11 - Update

On the open of today's candle, the protective stop was moved to 1.00900, shading the high of 05 Jan 11 candle, protecting 89.9 pips for a start. The candle for 09 Jan 11 is not considered as it is a very short term candle. From today onwards, the protective stop will be moved progressively.

In addition to the trade update, there is another learning point worth mentioning which turns out to be a nice short term trade where I can go long on this pair. In this case, this trade was not taken by me as I was shorting this pair and with the new non hedging rule, I was not allowed to take up this trade anyway.

As seen in the attached chart, there was an opportunity to go long when price finished testing the PRZ and in this case, it was considered a low risk trade. However, it should be noted that the target objective in this case would have been max set at the 0.618 retracement level of the AD swing since we have already identified on the D1 chart that the route map for this pair was down since the larger picture for this trade was that we were selling of the D point completion of a Bearish Deep Crab Pattern. The following attached is how this trade would have worked out and as it turned out, it was a profitable trade.

From past experiences, counter trend trades usually have a high chance of hitting the 0.618 retracement level of the AD swing and in this case, it was clearly evident. Similarly, if the trade was triggered in the direction of the primary trend, i.e. the direction of the pair's road map, we can be more ambitious on the target objective where we can try to harvest more pips by setting the T/P even up to the Fibonacci Extension levels.

12 Jan 11 - Update

The protective stop has been moved from 1.00900 to 1.00300, protecting 149.9 pips this morning on the open of today's candle.

Currently, the trade looks promising as the D1 chart is showing that the pair is still quite bearish and thus I am still maintaining my bearish outlook for this pair. This is especially so with yesterday's candle closing as a long bearish candle.

13 Jan 11 - Update

The protective stop has been moved to 0.99900 today, protecting 189.9 pips. 

For learning purposes, it is worth to highlight that the previous day candle closed and formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. In most cases, this could have been a warning to take all profits if we would like to or in my case, I have decided to protect some portion of the profit and continue to hold and let the trade work its way out. Will update again if the trade is ongoing or that the protective stop is triggered.

It should be noted that for trading to get better as we progress as traders, we should be looking to trade better and hone our skills. Most traders will start off focusing on the monetary returns while will result in greed and fear. Previously, I would have gotten emotional about losing part of my profit due to a correction or that fear would have set in when I see prices moving against and this is worth mentioning to remind me of a lesson. Thus, today when this trade was done, I was able to execute it objectively and hold it till the trade works out. In the worst case scenario, this trade will have a profit of 189.9 pips for the last 2 batches.

14 Jan 11 - Final Update

The protective stop for the 2nd and 3rd batches were triggered on 13 Jan 11, GMT 12:24 at 0.99907. Profit for both batches were 189.2 pips each.

As it turns out, the warning signal seen on the D1 chart was clearly a strong signal and this exemplifies the strength of Japanese Candlesticks in technical analysis.